This is the third time I've sat down to write about this crash, so I won't waste your time recapping. Short version: back in February I called it a generational buying opportunity, in March I asked if we'd seen the final dip, and on June 2 I said the lows were coming — a capitulation flush was near, but I didn't expect dramatically lower lows. It's the end of June now. Let me grade that honestly, then look at the data — because for the first time this whole cycle, something genuinely interesting is happening.
Where We Are Right Now (Late June 2026)
- Bitcoin is trading in the $59,000s — roughly 53% below its all-time high near $126,000 (set last October), and this week it slipped below its 200-week moving average for the first time this cycle.
- That's deep and it hurts, but by historical standards it's actually mild: Bitcoin fell about 77% in 2022 and 84% in 2018. Every cycle, the bottoms get shallower as the market matures.
- Price is now pressing down into the single most important zone on the entire chart — the one every long-term holder watches.
That last point is the whole story, so let me unpack it.
First, Let Me Grade My June Call
On June 2 I said we'd likely retest the February lows around $64,000 — maybe wick a bit below — but that I didn't expect dramatic new lows. Honest scorecard: we went lower than my retest number. $64K didn't hold, and we've bled down into the $59,000s — right into the first real support band. If you read that post and treated $64K as the floor, you got a lower floor than I gave you. I'll own it — my short-term timing has been too optimistic three times running now.
But the structural call — no leverage, dollar-cost average, keep dry powder for a capitulation — is exactly what's kept me calm through every leg down. And here's what's different this time: price has finally come down to meet the levels that actually matter.
Why This Zone Matters: The Data
These aren't vibes — they're the specific levels analysts and on-chain folks are watching right now:
- Bitcoin just lost its 200-week moving average — the historical line in the sand, sitting around $61,000. Price has closed below it for the first time this cycle. That sounds terrifying, but history says the opposite: the only times Bitcoin has traded below this line — 2015, 2018-19, 2022 — turned out to be generational bottoms, not the beginning of the end.
- Realized price (roughly the average price at which every coin last moved) sits near $54,000 — the next major structural support beneath us. When price falls to realized price, the average holder is right around break-even, which historically has marked a capitulation zone, not a "sell everything" zone.
- MVRV — which measures how far price has stretched from what holders actually paid — has dropped into undervaluation territory, the range that has lined up with previous bottoms.
- On-chain profit-and-loss models have fallen into the band seen at past market bottoms — an early sign that sellers are getting exhausted.
- The weekly RSI is flashing bullish divergence. Price has been grinding to lower lows while RSI carves out higher lows — the classic momentum tell that tends to show up before a trend reversal. In plain English: sellers are getting tired even as the price drips lower. It's one of the more encouraging signals on the chart right now.
Stack it together and the picture is clear: Bitcoin has just lost its 200-week average near $61,000, and the next major floor beneath us is realized price around $54,000. That $54,000–$61,000 band is where the weight of the evidence says a bottom forms — and at roughly $59,900, we're sitting right inside it.
So Is the Bottom In? Not So Fast.
Here's where I have to be honest instead of hype-y, because this is exactly the moment people get overconfident and blow themselves up. The bottoming signals are flashing, but they are not confirmed:
- Some longer-term averages (like the 365-day moving average) still need more time to roll over before they'd confirm a full cycle reset. We may be short-term oversold rather than fully washed out.
- We've only just lost the 200-week average, and first breaks of this line often see a violent wick lower to flush the final sellers before the real low prints — that's how capitulation works.
- Macro can always get worse. On-chain levels are gravity, not a force field.
So my read is specific: this looks far more like a bottoming process than the start of another collapse — but "the zone is here" is not the same as "the bottom is in." I'd expect it to be messy: a test of realized price in the mid-$50Ks, possibly a scary wick beneath it to flush the last sellers, then a base. Not a clean V, and not a moon landing tomorrow.
What Hasn't Changed
Everything I've said since February still stands — and none of it lives on the price chart:
- The networks are running. Adoption didn't reverse. The tech didn't break — the price did, and price is the temporary part.
- Spot ETFs still hold tens of billions. A few rough months of outflows don't unwind two years of institutional plumbing.
- Regulation keeps grinding toward clarity, which is what lets serious money show up at size.
Price is temporary; the infrastructure being built is permanent. 2018 felt like death. 2022 felt like death. Both led to new all-time highs. I don't know the exact day this bottoms — but I know which side of this trade I want to be on when we look back in two years.
What I'm Actually Doing
- Still dollar-cost averaging — same fixed amount, same schedule, red candles or not.
- Zero leverage. The traders getting liquidated on the way down are the reason.
- Holding dry powder specifically for a capitulation wick into the low-to-mid $50,000s. If we get the flush, I want to be buying it, not frozen by it.
- Not trying to call the exact bottom — just accumulating inside the zone where bottoms have historically formed.
My Take
For the first time this whole cycle, price has come down to meet the levels that actually matter — losing the 200-week average and grinding toward realized price in the mid-$50Ks, with on-chain valuation in bottoming territory and the weekly RSI flashing bullish divergence. That's not a coincidence, and it's not nothing. But the signals aren't confirmed, and first tests of this zone are usually violent. So here's my honest one-liner: the bottom isn't confirmed, but the bottoming zone is here — and that's exactly when the herd panics and long-term buyers get paid.
Stay patient. Stay un-leveraged. And don't confuse "uncomfortable" with "over" — they almost never show up at the same time.
Disclaimer: This post reflects my personal opinions and is not financial advice. Always do your own research and consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions. Cryptocurrency is extremely volatile and you can lose money.