Back in March, I wrote a post asking a simple question: was that the final dip? Bitcoin had bounced to around $70,000, the weekly RSI was sitting at historic lows, and I argued the smart play was to keep accumulating rather than panic.
I want to start this one by being honest: it wasn't the final dip. Three months later, Bitcoin hasn't ripped to new highs. It chopped sideways through the spring and, as I write this on June 2, it's rolling over again — hard. So let me do what most market commentators won't: grade my own call, look at the data clearly, and tell you what I actually think happens from here.
Where We Are Right Now (June 2, 2026)
The numbers as of this writing aren't pretty:
- Bitcoin has broken below $70,000, trading around $67,700 — down roughly 4.5% on the day and nearly 12% on the week.
- Ethereum just lost the $2,000 level, a psychological support zone it had held for months, trading near $1,930.
- Over $1.2 billion in leveraged positions were liquidated in 24 hours — and about $1.08 billion of that was longs. Bitcoin accounted for roughly $626 million of the wipeout, Ethereum another $281 million.
- June opened below $72K after Bitcoin sealed its third red monthly candle of 2026.
- Spot Bitcoin ETFs bled again — roughly $484 million in net outflows in a single day, led by BlackRock's IBIT at $440 million.
That's the picture: price breaking key levels, leverage getting flushed, institutions pulling back. If you're feeling the fear, I get it. But fear is exactly when you need to look at the mechanics instead of the emotions.
First, Let Me Grade My Own Call
In February I called the crash one of the best buying opportunities in years. In March I asked if we'd seen the final dip and said I'd keep accumulating. So how did that age?
The timing call was wrong. I floated that we might see the low $50,000s before it was over, but I leaned toward a bottom being close. Instead, we got three months of grinding chop and now another leg down. If you went all-in in March expecting a rocket, you're underwater and frustrated. I won't pretend otherwise.
The strategy call held up fine. The whole point of those posts was: don't try to time the exact bottom, don't use leverage, dollar-cost average through the fear. If you did that, you've been buying Bitcoin in the $64K–$73K range for four months — and you've got dry powder for exactly the kind of flush we're seeing right now. The people getting destroyed today aren't the patient accumulators. They're the $1.08 billion in leveraged longs.
That distinction is the entire ballgame, and it's why I'm not panicking.
This Looks Like a Liquidation, Not a Collapse
Here's the part the red headlines miss. Before this drop, open interest in Bitcoin futures had climbed to around 773,000 BTC — a level seen only a handful of times ever — with funding rates running near 10% annualized. In plain English: the market was stuffed with leveraged longs all betting the same direction and paying a premium to do it.
When positioning gets that crowded, a flush isn't a surprise — it's almost inevitable. Price dips, the most over-leveraged longs get liquidated, those forced sales push price lower, which triggers more liquidations. It cascades. That is not the fundamentals of crypto breaking. That's a leverage reset — the market taking out the traders who got greedy, exactly as it always does.
Derivatives positioning suggests there may be more room to fall in the very short term, and I think that's right. When there's still leverage left to flush, the flush usually isn't finished. So I'm not going to tell you we've bottomed today.
The Lows Are Coming — But Maybe Not Lower Lows
Here's my actual read, and I'll be specific so you can hold me to it:
I think we see more liquidation and a capitulation low from here — a real gut-check moment, probably a retest of the February lows around $64,000. I wouldn't be shocked by a brief wick below it to shake out the last of the leverage. Capitulation candles are violent and fast.
But — and this is the key part — I don't think we make dramatically lower lows. I'm not in the "Bitcoin's going to $38K" camp. Here's why:
- The 200-week moving average, Bitcoin's historical line in the sand, sits down in the high-$40,000s. Bitcoin has never closed below it for long. We're still well above it — the long-term structure hasn't broken.
- This drawdown is milder than past cycles: roughly 46% off the peak, versus 77% in 2022 and 84% in 2018. The market is maturing and the swings are getting shallower.
- The thing dragging price down is leverage and macro fear, not a crypto-specific blowup. There's no Luna, no FTX, no broken network this time. Take the leverage out and the floor is a lot firmer than the chart feels.
So my framing is this: lows are coming, the liquidation isn't done, but this looks far more like the bottoming process than the start of a deeper collapse. Retest, flush, maybe a marginal undercut — then a base. Could I be wrong? Absolutely. Nobody rings a bell at the bottom, and macro can always get worse. But that's where the weight of the evidence points for me.
What Hasn't Changed: The Future Is Still Ahead
Zoom out from the candles for a second. Almost everything I laid out in February is still true, and most of it has gotten stronger:
- The networks are running. Adoption hasn't reversed. The technology didn't break — the price did, and price is temporary.
- Spot ETFs still hold tens of billions despite the outflows. A few hundred million leaving in a panic doesn't undo two years of institutional infrastructure being built.
- Regulation keeps maturing into clarity rather than chaos, which is exactly what lets big money participate at scale.
I've said it before and the last four months haven't changed my mind one bit: price is temporary; the infrastructure being built is permanent. Every cycle that looked and felt like this — 2018, 2022 — eventually led to new all-time highs. I'm more convinced than ever that crypto's best days are ahead of it, not behind it. The hard part is that "ahead" and "comfortable" almost never arrive at the same time.
What I'm Actually Doing
The same thing I've done all along, because the plan doesn't change just because the screen is red:
- Still dollar-cost averaging. Fixed amount, on schedule, regardless of the headlines.
- Zero leverage. The people getting liquidated today are a living reminder of why.
- Holding some dry powder specifically for a capitulation wick. If we flush into the low $60Ks or briefly under, I want to be buying, not frozen.
- Not trying to be a hero. I'm not calling the exact bottom. I'm accumulating near it.
My Take
I got the timing wrong in March, and I'll own that. But the discipline — accumulate, don't leverage, ignore the herd — is exactly what's keeping me calm while $1.2 billion in leveraged bets evaporate around me.
My honest read for right now: more liquidation is coming, a capitulation low is near, but I don't think we make dramatic new lows — and the long-term future of crypto is as bright as it has ever been. The liquidations you're seeing aren't the end of the story. They're the price of admission — the market clearing out the excess before the next leg up. The herd is panicking again. Historically, that has been far closer to the bottom than the top.
Stay patient. Stay un-leveraged. And don't let one more red month erase a multi-year thesis.
Disclaimer: This post reflects my personal opinions and is not financial advice. Always do your own research and consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions. Cryptocurrency is extremely volatile and you can lose money.