Bitcoin is trading around $84,000 as September ends (it closed September 29 at $83,622). That's up roughly 7% for the month and about 45% above the July 1 low, and it's the fourth green September in a row after six straight red ones. That's the price. This post is about the money moving underneath it, because price is the last thing to change and the flows are the first.
Short version of what I think: the macro low is in, the first real wall is $97K–$100K, and the road up will include liquidations and loud people insisting the lows are about to break. Below I lay out the data for all of that, then the strongest case against me, because I've learned to grade my own calls in public (the last scorecard is here).
Standard disclaimer: I'm not a financial advisor, this isn't financial advice, and everything below is my own read of public data. Forecasts are opinions, not facts. Do your own research and never risk money you can't afford to lose.
My Calls, Stated Up Front
- The low is in. Bitcoin bottomed at about $57.7K on July 1, 2026, 54% below the October 2025 peak of $126,198. I don't expect a lower low.
- This is the start of the next bull market, not a bear-market bounce.
- Resistance is around $100K, and $97K is the level I'd watch hardest. It's where the capitulation began in November 2025.
- Expect liquidations on the way up. Leverage gets flushed in every advance.
- Expect the clickbait. Every dip will come with a thumbnail screaming that the macro lows are about to break.
Grading My Last Warning
In the September 4 post I flagged two risks: the CLARITY Act vote and the Fed. Both hit. The Senate's cloture vote failed 49–50 on September 15 (60 were needed, and none of the 49 yes votes were Democrats). The next day the Fed raised rates 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00%, its first hike since July 2023. Bitcoin dropped from about $81K when I wrote to a $74,945 low on September 15, roughly 8%. Grade: A-. The warning was right. What I didn't call is what happened next, a 16.6% bounce in six days to $87,364. That brings us to the flows.
The Flows, One at a Time
1. ETF money: the biggest turn of the year
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs took in about $2.4 billion last week, their biggest weekly inflow in nearly a year, according to The Block. Year to date they are back to about +$934 million, after sitting roughly $5.8 billion in the red in mid-July. Total assets are around $108 billion.
The daily pattern matters too. September 15 and 16 saw $450 million and $296 million of outflows, right when the CLARITY vote failed and the Fed hiked. Then it flipped on September 17 and ran seven straight inflow days totaling about $2.98 billion, including a near-$1 billion day on September 21. One number I like: Bloomberg's James Seyffart put the average ETF buyer's cost at about $81,700, and the September 21 surge pushed price back above it for the first time since January. The average fund holder is profitable again, and holders in profit tend to hold. Flows follow price as much as they lead it, so I treat this as confirmation, not a prediction.
2. Stablecoins: the fuel tank stopped draining
Total stablecoin supply peaked at about $320.8 billion on May 17, per DefiLlama's data, then shrank 5.3% to $303.7 billion by August 11 as the market bled. Since then it has recovered to about $311 billion, roughly $7.5 billion of fresh dollars. Allium's September report also puts about $89 billion of stablecoins sitting on exchanges. That's cash on the sidelines that can buy Bitcoin in seconds. It isn't a record, and I won't pretend it is. But the direction changed at almost exactly the time price did.
3. Leverage: the rally was built on shorts, not greed
When Bitcoin ripped from $62K to $80K in August, CoinDesk noted that futures open interest was falling, not rising. That's short covering, not new leverage. Funding rates are still modest now, around 0.0075%–0.01% per eight hours (roughly 8%–11% annualized). Compare that to the overheated readings that come before real tops.
It still gets violent. On September 21, roughly $648 million of short positions across crypto were liquidated in 24 hours (CoinGlass, via The Block) as Bitcoin cleared $85K on falling oil prices and hopes for diplomacy, then it was rejected near $87.4K. Two days later, about $237 million of longs were wiped out in a single hour as it slipped under $84K. That's the pattern I expect to continue: sharp squeezes up, sharp flushes down, and a staircase higher underneath.
4. Corporate buyers are back
Strategy resumed buying in early September after a roughly ten-week pause, and from September 21 to 27 it bought 1,665 BTC (about $142.7 million) at an average of $85,681. Its total is 847,666 BTC at an average cost of about $75,400. The biggest corporate holder is adding at prices above its own cost basis, a vote of confidence at higher prices, not a forced seller.
5. The headwind I won't ignore: rates
This is the flow that could hurt. The Fed hiked 12–0 while projecting median 2026 core PCE inflation of 3.4%, and as of September 21 markets put roughly 56% odds on another hike in October (CoinDesk). The 10-year Treasury yield is 5.24% and the 30-year is 5.56% (FRED, September 28). Money that can earn over 5% from the government doesn't have to take crypto risk. Bitcoin's muted reaction to the hike (it held $75.0K–$75.8K on the day) suggests it was priced in, but higher-for-longer is the most credible force that could cap this move.
Why I Think $57.7K Was the Low
Everything below comes from daily price data (Yahoo Finance), calculated myself.
- Shallower crash, earlier bottom. Prior cycles fell 84% (2017–18) and 77% (2021–22), taking 363 and 376 days from peak to trough. This one fell 54% in 268 days. The drops have shrunk each cycle as the market got bigger and more institutional.
- Less time underwater. Price spent about 11 weeks below the 200-week average this year (June 4 to August 18). In 2022–23 it was about nine months. The 200-week average is now about $65.8K and price is about 27% above it.
- The recoveries that looked like this didn't retest. Ninety days after the 2015, 2018, and 2022 lows, Bitcoin was up 31%, 27%, and 59%. We're at +45%. In none of those three cases did price come back within 15% of the low over the next twelve months. (Three cycles is a tiny sample, and I'm not going to pretend it's a law.)
- Seasonality leans bullish. October closed higher in 9 of the 11 years from 2015 to 2025, averaging +19% with a median of +15%. Last year's -3.9% was the first red October since 2018.
The Best Case Against Me
I owe you the other side, and it's a good one.
- Bear-market rallies fool everyone. Inside the 2018 and 2022 bear markets there were at least five bounces of 40% or more (+98%, +53%, +45% in 2018; +45% and +42% in 2022). Every one was followed by a lower low.
- The calendar disagrees with me. In the last two post-peak years, Q4 was brutal: -43.5% in 2018 and -14.8% in 2022, and both cycle lows landed in Q4. Benjamin Cowen's July memo argued the same shape: in two of the last three midterm years the low came in Q4, and he had this cycle in "bottom-watch mode."
- Rates and legislation. A Fed that's hiking, 5%+ yields, and a stalled CLARITY Act (Sen. Tillis filed a motion to reconsider, so it isn't technically dead) are real drags.
My answer: those cycles had 77%–84% crashes and this one had 54%, ETF and corporate buyers are a bigger part of the market than in earlier cycles, and price has reclaimed the moving averages that mattered. That's a judgment call, not a proof.
The Ceiling: $97K–$100K
The November 2025 drop is the reason I'm watching this zone. Bitcoin closed at $99,697 on November 13 and $94,398 the next day, breaking straight through $97K. It has not had a single daily close above $97K since. The one time it went back was January 14, 2026: a high of $97,861, rejected the next day, and by January 31 it was down at $75.8K. Anyone who bought between $97K and $126K last fall is either underwater or sold, and a lot of them are waiting to get out at break-even. That overhead supply is why I expect a fight there. From about $84K, $97K is roughly 15% higher and $100K roughly 19%.
On the way up, the levels I'd watch are $87.4K (the September 21 high), $90K, then $94K, before the real test.
The Noise You Should Expect
Since the July low, the deepest closing drawdown from any running high has been only 7.0%. That's unusually smooth, and it won't last. In the six months after this stage of recovery in earlier cycles, Bitcoin had between one and three double-digit pullbacks (from 11% to 32%). A 10% pullback from the September high would be about $78.6K, and a 20% one about $69.9K, which is still above the 200-week average. That would feel like a crash and look like normal behavior.
When it happens, the headlines will say the macro lows are about to break. Ask the boring question: did the weekly structure break, or did leverage get flushed? Right now the lows are $57.7K, about 30% below today's price.
What Would Prove Me Wrong
- A weekly close below the 200-week average (about $65.8K) tells me the recovery was a bounce. I'll say so here.
- A new low under $57.7K ends the thesis outright.
- ETF flows turning negative for several weeks while price stalls under $87K.
- Yields pushing meaningfully higher while the dollar strengthens.
My Take
Every major flow I can measure turned in the last ten weeks: ETFs, stablecoins, corporate buyers, and leverage. The price structure has reclaimed its key averages, and the crash was shallower than any before it. I'm treating July 1 as the low. But rates are a genuine headwind, past cycles say Q4 is when lows form, and $97K–$100K is going to be a hard wall. So the plan doesn't change: dollar-cost average on a schedule, no leverage, and no chasing green candles. If the pullbacks come, I'd rather be boring than brave.
Disclaimer: This post reflects my personal opinions and is not financial advice. Always do your own research and consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions. Cryptocurrency is extremely volatile and you can lose money.